Every year around October, deal prediction articles start showing up, and most of them are vague enough to be useless ("expect TVs to be on sale!"). I'll try to be more specific based on the patterns that have held consistently over the last several years and what the 2026 setup looks like.

TVs: Still the Best Black Friday Category

TVs remain the most reliably discounted Black Friday category, and 2026 should follow that pattern. Expect entry-to-mid-range 4K TVs (55-65") from Hisense, TCL, and Samsung's lower tiers to hit 40-55% off during the November sale window. LG OLED and Samsung QLED premium models will drop more like 25-35%, which on a $1,500-2,500 TV is still a significant dollar amount.

The brands running the deepest cuts are typically the ones competing for volume at the price-sensitive end of the market. TCL and Hisense use Black Friday as a growth driver. Premium brands discount more conservatively.

Apple Products: Modest Discounts, Set Expectations Right

Apple doesn't participate in Black Friday meaningfully. You'll see $25-50 gift cards with MacBook or iPhone purchases at Best Buy and Target, occasional 5-10% off AirPods, and modest discounts on older iPad models. Expect 5-15% off at best on most Apple hardware.

The better Apple play is buying refurbished from Apple's own refurb store (which runs closer to 15-20% off year-round) or buying right after a new model release when older models drop in price officially.

Amazon Devices: Buy Here

Amazon's own hardware -- Echo, Kindle, Fire TV, Ring, Blink cameras -- hits its lowest prices of the year on Black Friday. Discounts of 40-60% on Amazon devices are the norm, not the exception. Echo Dot for $17. Kindle Paperwhite for $80. Ring Doorbell at nearly half off. If you've been waiting to build out an Alexa home setup or want a Kindle, this is the time.

Headphones and Audio: Strong Discounts

Sony WH-1000XM series and Bose QuietComfort headphones have dropped 30-50% during Black Friday consistently for several years. Budget brands like Anker Soundcore see similar discount depths. 2026 should follow the same pattern. If you want premium noise-canceling headphones, set a price alert in October on CamelCamelCamel and watch for when they dip during the sale window.

Early Access Is Now the Norm

Black Friday deals starting November 1st is standard practice at this point. Amazon, Target, Walmart, and Best Buy all start rolling out "early Black Friday" deals in the first week of November. The idea of a single-day shopping event is completely gone. The full sale window now runs from early November through Cyber Monday.

This is actually good for shoppers. You're not racing to be at a store at 5am anymore. The deals are available online, often for days, and you can make considered purchases instead of impulse ones.

Doorbusters Are Mostly Dead

The limited-quantity in-store-only doorbuster loss leaders that defined Black Friday for 20 years are largely gone. Retailers figured out that the chaos wasn't worth the liability or the labor costs, and the migration to online shopping made in-store doorbusters less relevant anyway. What's left is more limited-time online flash deals and invite-only early access for loyalty members -- less exciting, but also less of a scene.

What NOT to Buy on Black Friday

Winter clothing: just arrived at full price, or at shallow "sale" pricing. The real clearance on winter clothes is January-February.
Gift cards: never discounted, and some retailers use Black Friday gift card promotions as a way to lock your money in their ecosystem.
Jewelry: deals are rarely what they seem. Independent jewelers and even major chains have pricing games around perceived value that make it hard to know what a "deal" actually is.
Mattresses: Memorial Day and Labor Day are the mattress deal events. Black Friday discounts on mattresses are usually not the deepest.

Set Price Alerts in October

The single best Black Friday preparation move is to set up price alerts on the items you want in October. CamelCamelCamel for Amazon items, Google Shopping alerts for everything else. When November comes, you'll know immediately whether a "Black Friday deal" is actually a new low or just a price that was lower in September. Most years, a significant percentage of "Black Friday deals" are items that were cheaper earlier in the year.