People ask me this all the time. The honest answer is: it depends on what you're buying, and the difference is usually smaller than you think. I've tracked prices across both events for a few years now and the data is pretty clear on some categories and a total wash on others.

Amazon's Own Devices -- Prime Day Wins Every Time

This is the one category with an obvious answer. Amazon uses Prime Day as the showcase for its own hardware. Echo Dots, Echo Show, Fire tablets, Fire TV sticks, Kindle Paperwhites, Ring cameras and doorbells, Blink cameras -- all of them hit their deepest discounts of the year in July.

We're talking 40-60% off on Echo and Kindle products during Prime Day. Black Friday discounts on these same items are usually 30-40%. Not bad, but Prime Day is the better event by a real margin for anything with an Amazon logo on it.

If you want an Echo or a Fire tablet, buy it on Prime Day. Don't wait for Black Friday.

TVs -- Black Friday Still Owns This Category

Television deals are genuinely better in November. Retailers have spent decades training consumers to buy TVs on Black Friday and the competition is real -- Amazon, Best Buy, Costco, Walmart, and Target are all going after the same shoppers. That competition drives prices down in ways that Prime Day just doesn't match.

On a 65"+ 4K TV, Black Friday discounts typically run 30-45% off regular retail. Prime Day on the same category is usually 20-30%. The gap is meaningful on a $600-800 TV.

The sweet spot for TV buying is actually the week before Thanksgiving, not Black Friday itself. Prices often bottom out Monday-Wednesday of that week.

Laptops -- Genuinely Hard to Call

This one is a real toss-up. What I've found: mid-range Windows laptops ($400-700 range) tend to be slightly better priced on Cyber Monday. High-end laptops (Dell XPS, MacBooks, premium Lenovos) are roughly the same at both events -- maybe 15-25% off at both.

Chromebooks are better on Prime Day, probably because back-to-school timing lines up better with summer.

MacBooks are notoriously resistant to deep discounts at any event. $100-150 off a MacBook Air is about as good as it gets, and that happens at both Prime Day and Black Friday. If you see $150 off a MacBook Air, buy it whenever you see it.

Headphones -- Both Events Are Legitimately Good

Sony WH-1000XM series and Bose QuietComfort headphones hit $180-220 at both Prime Day and Black Friday, down from $300-350 MSRP. I've checked this repeatedly and the July and November prices are almost always within $10-20 of each other.

Same with AirPods. $169 for AirPods Pro shows up at Prime Day and Black Friday basically every year. For headphones, buy whichever event comes first when you need them.

Fashion -- Black Friday

Fashion discounts on Amazon during Prime Day are real but not the best you'll find. Black Friday is when clothing brands push harder to clear fall inventory before the holiday rush ends. Typical Black Friday clothing discounts: 30-50% on mid-tier brands. Prime Day clothing deals are usually 20-30%.

Home Goods -- Prime Day, Slightly

Bedding, bath towels, furniture, storage solutions -- Prime Day edges out Black Friday here, mostly because Amazon leans into home goods as a Prime Day category. That said, we're talking about a 5-10% difference on most items.

Toys -- Black Friday, No Contest

Holiday inventory peaks in November and retailers need to move it. LEGO sets, board games, action figures, gaming accessories -- Black Friday has the deepest discounts and the widest selection on toys. If you're buying toys for the holidays, Black Friday is the right move. Just be aware that popular items sell out fast.

The October Wildcard: Big Deal Days

Amazon's fall sale event -- Prime Big Deal Days -- is worth taking seriously. It runs two days in October and hits Amazon devices, electronics, and home goods with Prime Day-level discounts in many cases.

The underrated use case: buy holiday gifts early. If you're planning to give someone an Echo, a tablet, or headphones in December, buy it in October. The prices are essentially the same as Black Friday, you have the item in hand two months earlier, and you don't deal with November shipping anxiety.

The Real Data: They're Often Within 5%

I pulled price histories on 20+ products across both events. On most categories outside the obvious wins listed above, Prime Day and Black Friday prices land within 5% of each other. On a $200 item, that's $10. Not nothing, but not a reason to wait six months if you need the thing now.

The Actual Strategy: Stop Waiting for Events

Here's the thing about event-based shopping: it feels strategic but it's mostly just scheduled impulse buying. The real move is setting a price target and buying when it hits -- regardless of what month it is.

Use CamelCamelCamel to set a price alert on anything you want. Enter the Amazon URL, set the alert at 20-30% below current price, and forget about it. You'll get an email when it hits. Sometimes that's Prime Day. Sometimes it's a random Tuesday in March when Amazon runs a flash sale nobody announced.

I got my robot vacuum 35% off on a Wednesday in February because the price alert fired. Wasn't Prime Day, wasn't Black Friday -- just a price drop Amazon ran for a few days. Would have missed it entirely if I was sitting around waiting for July.

Use the event calendars to know when to pay attention. But the real strategy is alerts, patience, and buying on price -- not on hype.